ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND FUTURE WARS
INTRODUCTION
We discuss how Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a significant factor in future wars with soldiers, planners, and Governments. Engineers and military commanders will be equipped with autonomous weapons, drones, aircraft, ships, robots, submarines, and all material of war-craft weaponry. Whoever has the fastest, most intelligent, lethal weapons will win future wars.
We have over 40 wars in progress in parts of the world. The prospect of a sizeable future war with major superpowers, such as the US, China, Russia, and others, looks probable in the next five years. The era of autonomous weapons is upon us. This is a fundamental shift in warfare history, and we are only at the beginning. The future is being built today.
HISTORY
The quest for more deadly war machines is not recent, and there are multiple examples over the past generations. We can look back centuries, such as the Chinese who invented and used Gunpowder as far back as the first century. The earliest reference to Gunpowder was documented in 142 AD by an Alchemist, Wei Boyang. The Chinese Army used it to good effect by making bombs, grenades, and mines.
Fast forward to the 19th Century, circa 1861, at the start of the American Civil War, when an American inventor Richard Gatlin designed and created the Gatlin Gun, which could fire 300 rounds a minute. At best, the average Infantryman with a musket could fire three shots per minute. At this time, military commanders considered the Gatlin Gun a marvel. The Gatlin Gun laid the foundation for more automatic and sophisticated weapons.
The Industrial Revolution provided materials for building ever-sophisticated tanks, guns, aircraft, and modern warfare. Since then, there has been constant and ever-increasing sophistication of weaponry – eventually leading to today with the use of Artificial Intelligence software.
SEMI AND FULLY AUTONOMOUS WEAPONS
The government now has a variety of types of Artificial Intelligence Weapons – some as partially autonomous, which means humans can decide to launch a weapon at a target. Others are fully autonomous, meaning the software launches with human input and destroy a target. Entirely autonomous weapons are not yet widely used, but several systems cross the line.
The Technology to develop and enable sophisticated war weaponry that can take life on its own without human decision-making or judgments is not upon us. What we do with this is up to us all. We can build Artificial Intelligence war systems to build a safer world with less human suffering and death. Military commanders and Governments make these decisions – the Military is seduced by the power and sophistication of what is available. There are no easy answers or solutions.
These war machines can do unimaginable things, but they cannot offer answers or meaning for global serious questions that must be addressed and answered. The world we have created has intelligent war machines, which will increase in sophistication and more deadly outcomes. We need a global AI Weapons Treaty for all nations to sign and agree with.
It is our world, and we should collectively decide. It will be complicated.
WARFARE TECHNOLOGY
Firstly, let us be clear about the term we shall be discussing
Lethal autonomous weapons (laws) are autonomous military systems that can independently search for and engage targets based on AI-programmed constraints and descriptions. Laws are also known as lethal autonomous weapon systems, autonomous weapon systems, robotic weapons, killer robots, or slaughter bots.
Governments and military commanders should not take the decision and choices about starting a war lightly. Millions of lives are at stake with the devastating technology we now have in modern warfare. With fast decision-making weapons with AI, the risks are even more significant.
But technology has brought us to a new threshold of war and its eventual outcomes. In the future – and in some cases right now- machines and AI software will make life-or-death decisions without interaction or decision-making. Governments and their military need to make firm decisions about what levels of authority and control these weapons will have.
This is not science fiction. Over sixty nations have AI autonomous weapons that can act faster than any human decision-maker. For example, Israel has an autonomous aerial drone named Harpy that has full authority to locate enemy radar locations and destroy them immediately without asking for permission.
Israel has sold this technology to many other Governments. China has reversed engineered the technology and built its own- with notable improvements.
The spread of AI technology is transforming modern warfare. The Industrial Revolution brought about the construction of mechanical warfare, such as tanks, large-scale guns, aircraft, ships, and general warfare machinery.
The AI revolution has made these war machines smarter, faster, accurate. Precise and more deadly and lethal.
AI WARS –NUCLEAR WEAPONS
This discusses the effects and impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) software on military systems and warfare. This section will deal with essential and discuss the effects and use of AI on nuclear weapons.
WHO HAS NUCLEAR WEAPONS?
That is an excellent question to ask. It is generally accepted there are ten countries as listed below. What is unknown or not disclosed by Governments is the number of countries developing or starting to develop nuclear weapons, except for Iran. Possibilities countries include Brazil, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, and maybe others.
The next logical question is asking how many nuclear weapons exist in these countries.
From a high number in 1986, there were 70,300 nuclear weapons; lately, there are 3,750 active nuclear weapons with active warheads ready to fire. Additionally, 13,890 nuclear weapons have been decommissioned or stored but not destroyed. While these numbers have declined over the years through Nuclear Treaties, a significant number still exists.
This is disturbing when you consider that just one nuclear weapon can kill millions and probably start and end Word War III in hours or less.
AI AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
In 2017 President Putin declared that whatever country leads in the development of AI will become “the ruler of the world “ Russia is working hard on AI systems capable of that to a human brain”. China has stated it intends to be a world leader in AI by 2030. The United States declared in 2019 that it would maintain its world lead in AI.
Will nations use the power of AI in the use of nuclear weapons? With this new technology would give countries world dominance? But the marriage of AI and nuclear weapons poses significant risks, as we shall describe here.
Total number of nuclear weapons By Country – 2022. The latest known figures.
USA 5,550
North Korea 40 (estimated)
France 290
India 156
China 350
Pakistan 165
Russia 6,255
Israel 90
United Kingdom 225
South Africa Unknown
Advanced AI technologies are reshaping national security and international order. Changes in one area change the other. The causality doesn’t go in only one direction (e.g., technology driving change in the international system). Instead, both national security and international order coevolve dynamically. Advanced technology is an essential element defining this coevolution. Technological innovation is shaping international order, just as it has disrupted the industrial order.
An AI Nuclear arms race – which has now started among the major powers could upset the global nuclear balance. The race has already started. The eventual winner is uncertain. The race will last for many years as countries seek more sophisticated AI nuclear weapons, missiles, drones capable of dropping nuclear bombs, nuclear-based torpedoes, and stealth-based AI nuclear weapons. These are just a few examples.
One benefit at present of AI is that it could be used in early warning systems. It could speed up military commanders' reaction time with confident data. It has been calculated that nuclear-armed missiles would take 8 minutes to reach their target. Widening that window could be vital in taking alternate action or mitigating the response. This is based on traditional missile speeds, but as speeds such as the Hypersonic missiles will increase, that figure of 8 minutes could be significantly reduced. Hypersonic missiles travel at Mach 5 – a speed of 3,800 mph. Increased speeds are expected as this technology expands and is developed.
Accidents are increasing in the nuclear realm. There have been many examples in the last decades. For example, in March 2003, US Patriotic Missiles shot down a British Plane and a US Plane while operating in “automated mode.” Both pilots and crew were killed.
Accidents will likely increase as AI systems become more complex with more control.
Hacking is not just specific to AI, but AI involves computers, and it does, it must be considered vulnerable to hacking. The intelligence can be hacked, but data might also be altered at the inputs, outputs, or en route from the output to the display. Of course, any AI that played a role in the nuclear enterprise would be carefully protected. Still, it would also be a high-value target for hackers, particularly groups who want to start a nuclear war.
AI WAR AND WEAPONS FUTURES
The future of AI military weapons is a topic of much debate and speculation. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a rapidly advancing technology that has the potential to revolutionize the way wars are fought. AI-powered weapons could identify and target enemy combatants autonomously and launch attacks autonomously. This could potentially reduce the number of casualties on both sides of a conflict and reduce the time and resources needed to wage war. However, the use of AI in military weapons also carries with it several risks. One of the most significant risks is the potential for AI-powered weapons to be used in a way that is not in line with international law and human rights.
AI-powered weapons could be used to target civilians or to launch attacks without proper authorization. This could lead to a situation where innocent people are killed or injured, and the responsible party is not held accountable. Another risk associated with AI military weapons is their potential to be hacked or manipulated by malicious actors. AI-powered weapons are highly complex systems, and as such, they are vulnerable to cyber-attacks. If a malicious actor were to gain access to an AI-powered weapon, they could potentially use it to launch attacks or cause other forms of disruption. This could lead to significant damage and loss of life.
Finally, there is the risk that AI-powered weapons could be used to create an arms race between nations. As AI-powered weapons become more advanced, nations may need to develop their own weapons to keep up with their rivals. This could lead to a situation where nations are locked in an arms race, with each side trying to outdo the other in terms of technological sophistication. Despite the risks associated with AI military weapons, there is still a great deal of potential for them to be used positively. AI-powered weapons could reduce the number of casualties in a conflict and reduce the amount of time and resources needed to wage war. They could also be used to identify and target enemy combatants more accurately, reducing the risk of civilian casualties. Ultimately, the future of AI military weapons is uncertain. While there is potential for them to be used positively, several risks are also associated with their use. These risks must be considered when developing and deploying AI-powered weapons to ensure that they are used in a way that aligns with international law and human rights.
CONCLUSIONS
At some point, the major nuclear powers must convene a series of meetings and negotiations to develop a clear Treaty of Understanding and Deterrence, then sign AI-based nuclear weapons. Without this, fear, uncertainty, and paranoia will exist at the highest levels of significant Nuclear-powered countries. That is a perilous situation.
Our conclusions are apparent. The combination of AI software systems controlling nuclear weapons is perilous and is to be avoided at all costs. AI software systems are not sufficiently developed and not mature to handle the enormous responsibilities, ethics, and impact of nuclear war and its consequences,
Humans are the critical factor in whether to launch nuclear weapons. The consequences of human destruction, loss of life for billions of people, and planetary obliteration with annihilation are much too significant to turn over to AI systems.
They are proven and not sophisticated for such an important task.
So frightening and far away from that Cold War I fought in the 60s.